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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It often serves as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence wins the award. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or just the biggest shock.

But the current competition is fundamentally different. The pool of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent conference winners declining and recent underperformers rising in unison. In an normal season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and fun season, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to display his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal season, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and experience, he hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still